

The working paper "Evolution and determinants of firm-level systemic risk in local production networks" by Anna Mancini, Balázs Lengyel, Riccardo Di Clemente, and Giulio Cimini investigates how firm-level trade networks shape economic vulnerability and resilience. Analyzing Hungarian production networks from 2015 to 2022, the authors show that systemic risk shifted markedly during the COVID-19 crisis, as firms enabling economic exchange became more central. Comparing these dynamics to a maximum entropy null model, they find that real-world firms adapted in ways that reduced systemic risk, unlike the model's static assumptions. International trade volume plays a significant role in predicting systemic risk, though imports and exports exert contrasting effects through supply and demand channels.